Since Donald Trump's return to the White House, the Israeli shekel has appreciated markedly against the euro — moving from 4.10 to 3.75 over the past twelve months. This 8% variation has direct consequences on the cost of real estate purchases for European investors.
The macroeconomic context
The current US administration is perceived by markets as structurally pro-Israel: strengthened financial agreements, lifting of certain transfer restrictions, constant diplomatic support. This climate fuels increased international investor confidence in the Israeli economy — and mechanically supports the currency.
The effect on real estate
An apartment listed at 15 million shekels cost €3.66M at the end of 2024. The same property, with no change in shekel price, costs €4M today. For a euro buyer, that is a 9% rise without any transaction having taken place on the property itself.
The reaction of Israeli sellers
The consequence: Israeli sellers, aware of foreign appetite, are raising their shekel listing prices — which amplifies the effect for the strong-currency buyer. Over the past twelve months, premium Tel Aviv listing prices have risen 6 to 9% in shekels, and therefore 14 to 17% in euros.
Three strategies for euro buyers
1. Lock in the exchange rate. Several private banks in Switzerland and Luxembourg offer 6 or 12-month EUR/ILS forwards. For an upcoming transaction, this is useful insurance.
2. Convert progressively. Rather than transferring the entire amount at once, spreading the conversion over three to six months smooths the peak risk.
3. Favor euro-denominated properties. Some new projects (notably in Sde Dov and Herzliya Pituah) accept euro contracts directly. This neutralizes currency risk.
Our reading
As long as the new US administration remains in place, the shekel has few structural reasons to weaken. For European buyers who hesitate, waiting costs. This is an unusual message to deliver in a market often perceived as cyclical — but it is what the numbers show.
